Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 276.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 276.5 (-130) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
- In this week’s contest, Joe Burrow is forecasted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.5.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL against the Bills defense this year (77.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- Joe Burrow’s 230.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a noteable regression in his throwing talent over last season’s 289.0 rate.
- Joe Burrow’s passing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 65.7%.
- Joe Burrow’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, averaging just 6.10 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards
289
Passing Yards
