Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 276.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 276.5 (-130) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
In this week’s contest, Joe Burrow is forecasted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.5.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL against the Bills defense this year (77.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
Joe Burrow’s 230.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a noteable regression in his throwing talent over last season’s 289.0 rate.
Joe Burrow’s passing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 65.7%.
Joe Burrow’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, averaging just 6.10 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards