Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Jared Goff has thrown for substantially more yards per game (263.0) this year than he did last year (229.0).
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (73.1%).
- The Green Bay Packers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 195.0 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
