Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 226.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 226.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-114).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Seahawks, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
In terms of a defense’s impact on pace, at 27.60 seconds per play, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
With an outstanding 69.0% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Geno Smith ranks among the most on-target QBs in football.

Cons

The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 6.12 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
258
Passing Yards