Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Gardner Minshew from EV Insight

Gardner MinshewPassing Yards

Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (-120) after it opened @ 230.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
The Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Gardner Minshew’s 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial growth in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 58.0% rate.
The Panthers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 4th-most in the league.

Cons

The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offensive gameplan to tilt 1.0% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the stout Panthers defense has conceded a meager 191.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards