Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Bears
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-134/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-134) after it opened @ 245.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a staggering 65.5 per game on average).
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (283.0 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.
- This year, the weak Chicago Bears defense has yielded a colossal 74.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- With a 9.5-point advantage, the Saints are a massive favorite in this week’s contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
