Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 255.5 (-115) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the most accurate passers in football this year with a stellar 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 86th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (270.0 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the league vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (75.9%).

Cons

The Packers are a big 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers’s passing effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a mere 6.99 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 figure last season.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards