Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 68.5 (-114) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accrue 17.8 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Travis Etienne has generated 56.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (77th percentile).
- The Denver Broncos defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.11 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
- The Denver Broncos defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
