Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
While Thursday Night Football has had its flaws this season, I’m expecting we finally get a good matchup in Week 8. While these teams may not be coming in with the hype they had before the season, this is a very important game. I always feel like two teams in need of a bounceback always produce some nice motivated (hopefully offense-oriented) football.
The Buccaneers are always coming into this game as one of the biggest question marks in football. Tom Brady’s ability hasn’t been questioned this much in years, and back-to-back losses to the Panthers and the Steelers have led to relentless criticism from the public. Motivation is normally something I try not to overvalue, but I can’t think of a non-playoff situation where Brady would be more motivated than this. Here is my favorite bet for Thursday’s game.
Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
-110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Last week, I almost ended up betting Cade Otton but didn’t end up pulling the trigger, that was a mistake. Coincidentally enough, last week I wrote a lot about David Njoku, and tight ends’ success against the Ravens, looks like something worth revisiting to me. Let’s once again check out how tight ends have performed against the Ravens this season:
- David Njoku 7-71-0
- David Bellinger 5-38-1 (leading receiver)
- Hayden Hurst 6-53-1 (leading receiver)
- Dawson Knox 3-40-0
- Jonnu Smith 4-25
- Mike Gesicki 4-41-1
- Tyler Conklin 4-16-1
Njoku led all Browns receivers in targets and receptions and fell 3 yards shy of finishing as the leading receiver, which would be the third straight week. There does seem to be a pattern developing here, and it’s worth noting that these tight ends spikes coincide with safety Marcus Williams going down with injury three weeks ago. The Ravens will have their hands full on the outside dealing with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (maybe Julio Jones will even make an appearance), this should generate some easy opportunities for the rookie.
Let’s talk about Otton. He’s been good in the absence of starter Cameron Brate. In those two games without him, he has run 80% and 91% of routes, and chased this number easily in both games. We know Brady loves to dump the ball off at the first sign of danger, and he should serve that roll very well. The Tampa Bay defense has plenty of injuries to worry about, so I’m expecting a higher-scoring game where Brady is throwing the ball plenty. 107 yards on 10 catches and 12 targets in two games without Brate, I would have had this line at 34.5.
