Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-150/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-150) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
- The model projects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Tony Pollard is anticipated by our trusted projection set to rank in the 95th percentile among RBs with 17.3 rush attempts.
- After taking on 41.6% of his offense’s carries last season, Tony Pollard has been more involved in the run game this season, currently comprising 63.0%.
- With an outstanding total of 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (88th percentile), Tony Pollard ranks as one of the best pure rushers in the league this year.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
- The Rams defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
