Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cardinals vs. Ravens
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offensive strategy to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- With an impressive 92.9% Route% (93rd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
- With an excellent 64.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (83rd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks among the best pass-catching WRs in football.
- This year, the shaky Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a monstrous 181.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Ravens being a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 51.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Ravens.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
