Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Giants vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-130) after it opened @ 68.5 (-125).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- The model projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.0% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Breece Hall is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.1 carries.
- Breece Hall has picked up 70.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (91st percentile).
- The New York Giants defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.25 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jets to run the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 52.0 per game on average).
- When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Jets ranks as the worst in the NFL last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
