Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-109/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 69.5 (-112).

Pros

The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 4th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Giants this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).
In this contest, Saquon Barkley is predicted by the model to finish in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.3 carries.
Saquon Barkley has generated 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (93rd percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.

Cons

The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3-point underdogs.
The projections expect this game to have the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.80 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to run support (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, New York’s collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 9th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards