Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Panthers vs. Texans
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (+100) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a colossal 64.0 per game on average).
- The Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- Hayden Hurst’s 22.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 28.8.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
- Hayden Hurst has compiled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
- Hayden Hurst’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 79.1% to 65.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
