Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (+100) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a colossal 64.0 per game on average).
The Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Hayden Hurst’s 22.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 28.8.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Hayden Hurst has compiled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
Hayden Hurst’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 79.1% to 65.7%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards