Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-130) after it opened @ 35.5 (-125).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
- Among all RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson grades out in the 85th percentile for carries this year, taking on 51.2% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
Cons
- At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 39.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s 38.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his rushing ability over last year’s 59.0 rate.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s running effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating a measly 3.05 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 mark last year.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been less successful in picking up extra rushing yardage this season, notching 1.91 yards-after-contact vs a 3.81 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
