Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).

Pros

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
This week, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 8.9 targets.
T.J. Hockenson has been heavily involved in his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
When talking about pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Vikings ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Cons

The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.1 plays per game.
T.J. Hockenson has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
T.J. Hockenson’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, notching a mere 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 rate last year.
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 40.0) versus TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards