NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
- This week, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 8.9 targets.
- T.J. Hockenson has been heavily involved in his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Vikings ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
Cons
- The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.1 plays per game.
- T.J. Hockenson has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
- T.J. Hockenson’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, notching a mere 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 rate last year.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 40.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
