Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Eagles vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+100) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Steelers are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Najee Harris has run for many fewer yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 105 per game) versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
