Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-145) after it opened @ 52.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 13.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Leonard Fournette has grinded out 54.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 31.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this week (65.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.9% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 103 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards