Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
We only have a small slate of NBA action for Tuesday evening, with just four games in the association. Normally I have more bets on a fuller slate, but I’m only interested in two things. See my best bets for Tuesday’s NBA action below:
Best NBA Total Bet
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Over 214 points
This is one of the bigger edges in our NBA model. These two teams currently rank as 28th and 29th for points scored per 100 possessions. So why do I like the over? OKC has been bad on both ends, but they are playing faster than LA, so the bad defense and faster pace should help the Clippers score more points. OKC is already averaging 110 per game, so even if the Clippers hold them to the 105-108 range, that only means the Clippers have to outscore the Thunder by at most 4 points to get this over to hit (109-105). The Clippers are also playing without a few of their forwards. Guys like Paul George and Marcus Morris are positives on both ends of the floor for the Clippers. Their missing defense will make things easier for OKC on offense and the OKC defense is bad, which should help those lesser scorers also have solid production leading to an over.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Isaiah Stewart Over 9.5 Rebounds
Isaiah Stewart had a slow first game, but he followed that up with double-digit rebounds against the Knicks and an explosion for 17 against the Pacers last game. He’s averaging over 10 on the season and draws a matchup against a team in the bottom third of the league for many rebounding metrics. He’s also seen his minutes jump from 24 in the opener to 30 the last two games. More minutes is only going to help a high-volume rebounder rack up more rebounds, which is why I think this is a safe play here.
