Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 68.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Cons

Chris Godwin has been used less as a potential target this season (74.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (92.4%).
Chris Godwin has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
Chris Godwin’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.5% to 68.7%.
Chris Godwin’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 7.48 yards-per-target vs a 9.87 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards