Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Buccaneers vs. Ravens
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 68.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- Chris Godwin has been used less as a potential target this season (74.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (92.4%).
- Chris Godwin has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.5% to 68.7%.
- Chris Godwin’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 7.48 yards-per-target vs a 9.87 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
