Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Browns
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-108) after it opened @ 65.5 (-119).
Pros
- A running game script is implied by the Seahawks being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- In this game, Kenneth Walker is predicted by the projection model to find himself in the 99th percentile among running backs with 19.1 rush attempts.
- Kenneth Walker has been a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this year (73.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (61.2%).
- Kenneth Walker has grinded out 76.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (95th percentile).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 37.6% run rate.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (just 56.3 per game on average).
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
- The Seattle offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football last year in run support.
- This year, the feeble Cleveland Browns run defense has been gouged for a whopping 3.58 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 29th-biggest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
