Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-104) after it opened @ 53.5 (-117).
Pros
- In this week’s contest, Joe Mixon is anticipated by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 carries.
- After taking on 68.6% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Joe Mixon has been called on more in the rushing attack this season, currently accounting for 85.7%.
- Joe Mixon has picked up 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (84th percentile).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 31.9% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.
- Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 76.0 per game) against the 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
