Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Raiders
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-139) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
- The Lions have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.1 plays per game.
- The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 16.1 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing effectiveness (4.67 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (78th percentile among RBs).
- This year, the strong Raiders run defense has surrendered a puny 4.85 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s running game: the 27th-lowest rate in football.
Cons
- The projections expect the Lions to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Las Vegas’s unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
