Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-113) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a giant 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- In this game, Isiah Pacheco is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.8 rush attempts.
- Isiah Pacheco has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this season (60.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (40.9%).
- Isiah Pacheco’s 64.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a material improvement in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 50.0 figure.
- This year, the deficient Broncos run defense has been gouged for a colossal 170.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
