FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 265.5 (-115) after it opened @ 263.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
- With an impressive rate of 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the best QBs in the NFL this year.
- Josh Allen’s 72.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a remarkable boost in his passing precision over last season’s 64.2% mark.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a giant 9.5-point favorite this week.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
