Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alexander Mattison from EV Insight

Alexander MattisonRushing Yards

Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
Alexander Mattison has run for many more adjusted yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).
This year, the anemic Packers run defense has been gouged for a colossal 148.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in football.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Green Bay’s DE corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

Cons

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 37.7% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.1 plays per game.
While Alexander Mattison has been responsible for 68.7% of his team’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Minnesota’s run game in this week’s contest at 48.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards