Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
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Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Buccaneers vs. Ravens
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-114) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 72.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
- Mike Evans has accrued quite a few more receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
Cons
- Mike Evans has put up quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a lowly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards
89
Receiving Yards
