Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Mike Evans to notch 8.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more prominently used in his team’s pass attack.
- Mike Evans comes in as one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an outstanding 66.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
- Mike Evans has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (117.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
