Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-105/-125).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 68.4% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a significant improvement in his pass attack volume over last season’s 55.6% figure.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 73.2% to 55.9%.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 2.9 adjusted yards per target this year marks a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 5.8 rate.
- With a feeble 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Irv Smith Jr. rates among the best pass-game TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
- This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered a measly 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
