Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
George PickensReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Steelers vs. Jaguars
Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.7 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in football.
- The model projects George Pickens to notch 8.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- After averaging 78.0 air yards per game last year, George Pickens has posted big gains this year, currently sitting at 108.0 per game.
Cons
- The Steelers have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- The Pittsburgh O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- George Pickens’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 62.5% to 56.5%.
- With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, George Pickens stands as one of the leading WRs in the league in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville’s unit has been great this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
