Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Cons

Diontae Johnson has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.4% to 60.9%.
Diontae Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 5.83 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last year.
Diontae Johnson’s ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating a mere 2.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.16 figure last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 137.0) vs. WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards