Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Bears
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to garner 8.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- Darnell Mooney’s 73.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 62.2.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
- Darnell Mooney has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
- Darnell Mooney has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (39.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
