Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have just a small four-game slate in the NBA for Thursday. As a result, I do not have as many edges as I normally find. We have a long season ahead, so we do not have to force bets. If the slate gives us a dozen opportunities that look good, we will bet them.
Thursday, I have only two edges worth betting on based on the prop number, Our FTN Bets.com Projections and the best price I could find in the FTNBets prop shop. Here are my two best bets for Thursday.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Stephen Curry Over 25.5 Points
Stephen Curry has dropped 30-plus in three of the first four games. Last game against the Suns, the score got away from the Warriors, but he still managed to drop over 20 in that game. Thursday’s game is expected to stay closer, and we project him to get 30-plus again in our player prop model. This feels a little too low of a number given his recent performances.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Ja Morant Over 7.5 Assists
(+110, PointsBet)
This is the highest assist number yet for Ja Morant, but he has gone over his assist total 75% of the time on the season. His projection in our player prop model is for double-digit assists, so we have a nice edge on this number. If it was -110, I would not be as interested, but at +110 I am definitely getting a bet down. We have over a 20% edge on the number and a payout that is giving us 110% of our money back as profit if that edge plays out.
