Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to earn 10.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.6 plays per game.
- D.J. Moore has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
- D.J. Moore has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
