Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Chargers vs. Bears
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bears will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyson Bagent in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.
- The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.4% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Moore has put up significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (87.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Bears offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.21 seconds per snap.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
