Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Connor HeywardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Steelers vs. Jaguars
Right now, Connor Heyward’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.7 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in football.
- Our trusted projections expect Connor Heyward to total 4.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- While Connor Heyward has received 6.8% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh’s passing attack in this week’s contest at 12.5%.
Cons
- The Steelers have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- The Pittsburgh O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
- Connor Heyward’s 58.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 81.3% mark.
- Connor Heyward’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, notching just 6.12 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.76 mark last season.
- With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) since the start of last season, Connor Heyward rates among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
