Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-121) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 4.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, averaging 8.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.97 rate last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
- Cole Kmet has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (23.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
- Cole Kmet’s 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 38.7.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
