Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- In this contest, Chris Godwin is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
- With an extraordinary 22.6% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
- Chris Godwin has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (71.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).
Cons
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
- Chris Godwin’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 74.7% to 69.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
