NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- Cade Otton has been less involved as a potential target this year (82.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%).
- Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to notch 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Cade Otton has compiled a colossal 24.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cons
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
- Cade Otton grades out as one of the weakest tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
