Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Cade Otton has been less involved as a potential target this year (82.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%).
Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to notch 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Cade Otton has compiled a colossal 24.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Cons

The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
Cade Otton grades out as one of the weakest tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards