Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Raiders
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Lions have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.1 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.5 targets.
- After accumulating 65.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted big gains this year, now averaging 80.0 per game.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
- The projections expect the Detroit Lions as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Raiders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 33.4 per game) this year.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s skills in generating extra yardage have declined this year, totaling just 4.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.59 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards
95
Receiving Yards
