Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-130) after it opened @ 65.5 (-125).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Texans defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.
Adam Thielen has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (89.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

Cons

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Panthers to pass on 56.9% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
This year, the daunting Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a feeble 3.4 YAC.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston’s collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards