Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 161.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 161.5 (-113) after it opened @ 156.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- Marcus Mariota has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (165.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).
- Marcus Mariota has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.65 yards-per-target while ranking in the 80th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 27.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
219
Passing Yards
219
Passing Yards
