Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+105/-136).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+105) after it opened @ 222.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
- Mac Jones’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 68.9%.
- This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a staggering 256.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst in the league.
Cons
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
