Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 159.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in football.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- Justin Fields has been among the bottom passers in the league this year, averaging 144.0 yards per game while grading out in the 8th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards
193
Passing Yards
