Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-125) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
In this week’s contest, Joe Burrow is expected by the projection model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.1.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Joe Burrow’s 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy regression in his passing talent over last season’s 289.0 rate.
Joe Burrow’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 62.5%.
Joe Burrow’s 5.53 adjusted yards-per-target this year indicates an impressive regression in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 7.6% figure.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 6.51 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards