NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Raiders
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-115) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders may rely on the pass game less in this game (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brian Hoyer.
- An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a massive -7-point underdog this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been one of the most efficient passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.69 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are expected by the projection model to call only 60.7 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
- The Raiders have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 54.4 plays per game.
- The predictive model expects Jimmy Garoppolo to throw 36.8 passes in this contest, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.
- The Lions defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
