Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+100/-122).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (+100) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are giant underdogs in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
Hunter Henry has run a route on 71.3% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has been torched for a staggering 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-worst in the league.

Cons

As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Hunter Henry’s 66.0% Adjusted Catch% this year marks an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 72.5% rate.
Hunter Henry’s 7.0 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a material reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 8.5 mark.
Hunter Henry’s ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, accumulating just 3.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 rate last season.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards