Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
49ers vs. Bengals
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bengals safeties profile as the 2nd-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have only 120.9 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards
236
Passing Yards
