NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Raiders
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 268.5 (-115) after it opened @ 271.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.1 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Lions O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- With a terrific total of 275.0 adjusted passing yards per game (89th percentile), Jared Goff ranks among the top QBs in the NFL this year.
- Jared Goff profiles as one of the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 7.52 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Cons
- This game’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
- The projections expect the Detroit Lions as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- In this week’s contest, Jared Goff is expected by the projection model to total the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.2.
- Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Raiders, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 33.4 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
280
Passing Yards
280
Passing Yards
