Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Browns
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 213.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
- Geno Smith rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an excellent 69.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 91st percentile.
- Geno Smith profiles as one of the most effective QBs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.61 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- A running game script is implied by the Seahawks being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (just 56.3 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- This year, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a mere 155.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the fewest in football.
- This year, the fierce Cleveland Browns defense has given up a meager 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the smallest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards
247
Passing Yards
