Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 213.5 (-114).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.
Geno Smith rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an excellent 69.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 91st percentile.
Geno Smith profiles as one of the most effective QBs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.61 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 84th percentile.

Cons

A running game script is implied by the Seahawks being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (just 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
This year, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a mere 155.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the fewest in football.
This year, the fierce Cleveland Browns defense has given up a meager 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the smallest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards