Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Panthers vs. Texans
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 240.5 (-115) after it opened @ 240.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Texans to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 61.7 plays per game.
- C.J. Stroud rates as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a remarkable 264.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
- This year, the shaky Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 4th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a massive 6.16 YAC.
- The Carolina cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The model projects the Texans as the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, C.J. Stroud is predicted by the model to average the 10th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.8.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
